CRE loan delinquency still growing but at slower pace as lenders rework deal terms

 By Ashley Fahey – Editor, The National Observer: Real Estate Edition, The Business Journals

Commercial real estate loan delinquencies are still rising but at a slower pace than they have been since the post-pandemic disruption in the industry.

Overdue commercial real estate loans tied to U.S. banks increased to 1.25% in the first quarter — a new cycle high, according to a recent analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Even so, the quarter's 10 basis-point increase from the prior quarter was slightly less than the 11 basis-point increase for the fourth quarter of 2023 and a 21 basis-point jump in the third quarter of last year.

Commercial real estate loan delinquencies are being closely monitored as the office market in particular is seeing drops in occupancy and value amid a higher interest-rate environment that looks likely to persist for longer than expected.

Many lenders have reworked terms with borrowers, including on troubled loans, or have extended the maturity date. Despite that, there's palpable concern about what happens to the $929 billion in outstanding commercial mortgages across all CRE lender types the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates will mature this year.

"Although higher interest rates continue to challenge commercial real estate, there are plenty of reasons for cautious optimism that a turnaround is on the horizon," Wells Fargo & Co. economists wrote in a May 28 note. "What's more, the slower pace of price declines is a sign that the air of pessimism surrounding the asset class is beginning to dissipate as less restrictive monetary policy comes closer in view."

But lenders remain cautious about their exposure to commercial real estate, prompting slower lending activity overall in the sector.

Year-over-year commercial real estate loan growth was 3% in the first quarter of the year. That's a slight uptick from the 2.9% growth in the fourth quarter of last year but well below the 12.1% peak in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, according to S&P Global.

Brent Maier, real estate advisory leader at Baker Tilly, told The Business Journals in an interview last month traditional, regulated lenders are having to set aside or increase their reserves for potential write-offs or loan workouts.

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